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Sunday, October 10, 2010

 
When I was growing up, one of the first things I remember hearing on television was Bill Clinton’s now immortal statement “I did not have sexual relations with that woman”. Ever since then, I, like a lot of the western world, have developed an innate curiosity with US politics in general. And now, with the mid-term elections looming, it’s time to look forward to the rollercoaster yet again.

Mid-term elections are a curious thing for many people living in Ireland, England and most of Europe. In many countries, elections are only held if the government collapses, if there is a change of leader, deaths or retirements. The United States, however, is different.

The mid-term elections are considered extremely important in US politics. As the name suggests, they are held midway throughout the incumbent president’s term. This means that they are generally held every four years, with the most recent being in 2006.

In a mid-term election, control of both Houses of Congress is in essence up for grabs. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives all face re-election, while a third of the members in the Senate have to face the voters, regardless of whether they’ve been there for two years or twenty years. This time round, 37 Senate seats are being contested.

These elections are being held amid the recessionary gloom and doom, which many experts have predicted will mean bad things for the Democrats. Currently in control of the House of Representatives (257 seats to 178), and also the Senate (59 seats to 41), they have been campaigning furiously in order to limit the number of losses. However, many commentators are predicting that this campaigning will ultimately be futile. The common consensus in America is that the Republicans will gain seats and once again regain control of the House of Representatives. The Senate has been a lot closer to call, with no-one able to make a solid prediction as to who will be in control after the election.

This has been in part due to the emergence of the Tea Party movement. This movement was started mainly by people angry at “big government” spending. Mainly composed of Republicans dissatisfied with the way the party is being run, they have proven to be effective at garnering support away from conventional candidates. This was seen in the Delaware primary, where Christine O’Donnell, backed by the Tea Party and Sarah Palin, defeated Republican backed candidate Mike Castle.

This has been seen as a good thing for her Democrat opponent, as Tea Party supporters are seen as very right-wing, much more so than the Republican Party in general. But with the strong anti-incumbent, anti-government feeling currently sweeping across the country, this may not translate into any success whatsoever.


It will be a difficult election for Barack Obama, no matter the results. He approaches these elections in what can only be described as a terrible political state. He has been attacked on all sides because of what has been seen as his failure to control government spending and the vast number of unemployed. His approval rating has fallen to under 50% and even those who would have voted for him two years ago are turning their back on him for what they perceive as the lack of change he has brought to the country.

The healthcare reform that Obama has committed himself, and indeed his party to, has cost him much of the popularity that swept him to power a little under two years ago. He has been slammed for spending what has been described as an exorbitant amount of money at a time when there are millions of people in the United States unemployed.

With the Democrats poised to lose control of at least one House of Congress, questions will be asked whether the rest of Obama’s term will be marked by Republican blocking of any legislation. This has occurred often enough throughout history that it will be a real concern for Obama’s administration.


It will be a concern for them because despite the common consensus of the US president being the “most powerful man in the world”, it is in fact Congress who holds the power to make or break any piece of legislation. This means that had the Republicans held any sort of majority in either house when the healthcare legislation was proposed, then its defeat would have been a certainty.

President Obama still has a little over two years to ensure he makes the kind of changes he so emphatically promised on the campaign trail only two years ago. But without Congress on his side, and with the American people only a few steps away from revolting in the streets, the challenges he faces are overwhelming. It will be interesting to see whether he will be able to overcome them.

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